I think the pattern is now clear. Here is my prediction for the elections of 2008:
- Barack Obama wins narrowly in the electoral college. Less narrowly by popular vote.
- John McCain attempts to blame the loss on gaffes by Sarah Palin, despite the clear fact that it was the Bailout Bill which sealed his fate with the Base.
- Congress sees many incumbents turned out, but the balance remains approximately the same as it is today.
- The Republican Party implodes, showing itself to now lack core values or a common narrative. It will require approximately 2 years to forge a new Republican Party, rejecting the Bush Doctrine of Preemptive War.
- The Democratic Party will interpret the elections as a "mandate" and will quickly overreach themselves. By the end of the first year of Barack Obama's presidency, the Democratic Leadership will see themselves unable to pass a major initiative (probably Universal Health Care). Fractures begin to form in their coalition.
- A resurgent Republican Party makes significant Congressional gains in 2010, retakes the House but fails to win a majority in the Senate.
What do you think? Am I way off? Or does this jive with your own thoughts?
I think the thoughts going through the election are probably right, I don't know about after that.
YanıtlaSilI seriously am looking for a 3rd party. I seem to have as many problems with them as with the two major parties, but it would be a protest vote. I just wish there was a single party to rally around and really make a statement (instead of just siphoning off a few votes to a bunch of 3rd parties).
you mean nothing gets done in government like usual? :)
YanıtlaSilI see Obama having a very real chance of winning the election, though more so because people don't show up to vote for McCain rather than people showing up to vote for Obama. Some states or counties have a "none of the above" option on the ballot so that people can vote, but express their dislike of all candidates. I wonder if "none of the above" would win this election, or at least come close to Obama and McCain.
We may end up with a Republican congress though. Historically, it seems we like to not have the same party in power in both the executive and legislative branches.
The Republican party imploding. Very well could happen, though I'm surprised that it's the Republicans and not the Democrats. The Democrats are known as the party of incompatible interest groups (tree huggers vs. labor, etc.) This election though, with the many nominees for the Republican party, shows that the party is struggling with each of its own factions - Financial conservatives, Moral conservatives, and Security. The Security faction of the party won the nomination and ever since then, the moral faction has been threatening to take their ball and go home, hence the addition of Palin to the ticket. There is also a growing movement in the Republican party (at least out here in California) that is pro-choice and/or pro-gay/lesbian.
The Democratic party will see it as a "mandate"... both parties do that. They seem to not realize that sometimes we are voting for them, not because we are giving them a mandate, but rather because we don't want the other side.
If the Republican Party implodes badly enough and the Democratic leadership oversteps its bounds, we *could* actually maybe throw out the two-party system and have smaller parties that all have a chance. On the one hand, the two major parties have a VERY vested interest in not letting the system collapse. On the other hand, the citizens are so fed up with both parties that if enough see the chance, it might just happen.
You sound like Tevye...:D "On the other hand..."
YanıtlaSilFor comparison, my predictions:
YanıtlaSil1. The election is too close to call now - but, whoever wins, there will be widespread accusations of fraud and manipulation.
2. If Obama wins, Bush will attempt to force rapid military action on Iran before his term ends - because he knows if he doesn't do it fast, it won't happen at all. He'll try, anyway... congress will make this difficult.
3. The republican party will not implode. After seeing how effective their strategy has been, they will continue exactly as they are today.
4. If McCain wins, then in four years he will not have managed to ban abortion in any significent way or to ban gay marriage. The religious right, disillusioned, will move away from 'republican good, democrat bad' partisan politics and turn towards more single-issue nonpartisan campaigns. This change at the grassroots level will not be reflected in the larger organisations - the FRC, FotF and so on will remain fiercely allied with the republican party.
5. There will likely, within the next few years, be some huge and unforseeable event that changes everything. Perhaps another 9/11-like attack, perhaps a economic shift that results in an international oil shortage, or a major war somewhere in the world starts unexpectidly. I have no idea at all - noone has. If an event occurs, all predictions are invalidated.
6. After the election, noone hears from Palin. Ever. Regardless of who wins. She is a political symbol, a way to win some social conservatives who were losing their trust in the republican party. There was never any intention for her to actually govern. Unless something happens to McCain, which is possible.
7. Republicans continue to hate the socialist, hippie democommies. Democrats continue to hate the bible-thumping, sexophobic, warmonger republicans. Neither side wishes to cooperate with the other.