29 Ekim 2008 Çarşamba

What if Obama loses?

After a nearly euphoric month for Barack Obama, signs are now beginning to show up that John McCain may be competitive after all. In early voting, turnout among new voters is light and this is a major demographic that Obama is counting on. Likewise, many poll show a tightening race overall with a significant number of undecideds still out there. If Obama were to lose next week, it will raise many questions amongst Obama supporters (including inevitable charges that the "election was stolen"). If that does come to pass, here are a few thoughts I think are worth remembering.
  • Despite perhaps the worst since Nixon for Republicans, due to the War and the Economy, Obama has rarely held a commanding lead. This should have been a warning sign from the start.
  • Obama took on a risky strategy for this race, running on his personality (and his "inevitability") more than issues. Yes, he has been strong on opposing the war, but otherwise has cloaked specific policy goals under the banners of "Change" and "Hope." Voters like a big thinker, but also want one who actually can articulate a plan.
  • Americans like divided government, where one party can keep a check on the other. Perhaps all the talk about a one-party system in Congress and the White House has reminded people that unrestrained government (Right or Left) is a dangerous thing. But if so, expect a massive win for the Democrats in Congress.
  • Electronic voting failures should not be laid at the feet of just one party. The Democrats have been in power in Congress and in many State governments for years, and have had plenty of time to debug the process.
  • America is still a center-right country, by and large. While they want to throw out the bums who got us here, they may not be ready for a wholesale lurch the the Left.
I have no inside info here, and to my mind I still think Obama is going to win with Bill Clinton-style margins. And you all know I am no fan of John McCain. But it is worth getting these out here now, before the heat of the moment arrives.

Do Mod-Bloggers think we should add anything else to this list?

1 yorum: