24 Ekim 2008 Cuma

Is the market voting against Barack Obama?

Here is an interesting question that I would like to see explored further by pollsters. The New York Post is asking if this week of especially bad stock market days are due to the continuing fallout of the economic meltdown, or if they are in fact a market reaction to the increasing certainty that Barack Obama will be president.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/10132008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/an_obama_panic__133374.htm

It is a question worth considering. The economy is one constant election where people vote for what they like and dislike with their dollars. It is run less on hard numbers then on vague senses and intuitive guesses about the future. If the markets are going South based on fears of an Obama America, then it raises several questions: (1) Is the Obama surge real or do the markets indicate it is an illusion? (2) Is the collective wisdom of the markets that Obama will be the wrong choice to get us out of the Recession? (3) What can Obama do to change these perceptions? (4) Does this present an opening for John McCain to change the narrative?

Of course, this is all conjecture. As of now, we do not know how much of the panic is based on future government, how much is based on past government, and how much is just based on day-to-day issues. We probably won't know until the history of this era is written by our children and their children.

5 yorum:

  1. I have heard reliable reports that certain industries and CEO's expect an Obama presidency and are planning restructuring and layoffs, among other things, because of it. They are scared to death.

    So I think that indicates that part (not all) of the unrest may be due to that expectation.

    YanıtlaSil
  2. I have heard reliable reports that certain industries and CEO's expect an Obama presidency and are planning restructuring and layoffs, among other things, because of it. They are scared to death.

    So I think that indicates that part (not all) of the unrest may be due to that expectation.

    YanıtlaSil
  3. I have heard reliable reports that certain industries and CEO's expect an Obama presidency and are planning restructuring and layoffs, among other things, because of it. They are scared to death.

    So I think that indicates that part (not all) of the unrest may be due to that expectation.

    YanıtlaSil
  4. Is there an echo in here? :)

    Seriously, though, I'd like to know where you heard/read those reports, if you can dig them out. Everything I have heard so far has been "on the grapevine" and not in any sourced report. And rumors are notoriously unreliable.

    YanıtlaSil
  5. Stupid blogger posted the comment 3 times and won't let me delete them...

    I can't really say where I heard it. I heard something from Rush about a conversation he had, and otherwise you have to conjecture who I have been listening in on...

    YanıtlaSil