To continue our conjecture this morning, I was thinking about the level of confidence in winning both inside and outside of the Obama camp. It is widely known that one of the major strengths of the Obama camp is that they have the youth behind them. Another well known fact is that the youth vote doesn't usually count for much. With conventional wisdom now pointing toward Obama winning handily, is it possible that the youth vote disintegrates on Obama? Younger voters often don't vote because it's not worth their while - or at least they don't perceive it to be - so is it possible that they will get the feeling that the election is already in the bag and not vote? The Obama camp has a very strong get out the vote push, so you can be sure that every one of those young voters who have made their support known will get a call or twitter or text or email or something encouraging them to vote, but it still seems likely to me that a lot of them just don't vote because of overconfidence. Does anyone have any thoughts about this. Perhaps this could be the new McCain stratagy - 'you don't have to vote because it's already in the bag' - or not...
The other key here is also to see what is the minimum pressure McCain has to bring in order to bring about a victory. Having taken public funding, he has limited resources to bear here. (Meaning, likely, the end of major candidates accepting public funding forever.) He has to make the most of every dollar, which is why he has abandoned Michigan (Mitt Romney country) and Colorado. So a larger blowout in either state means nothing. But even slim margins in swing states where McCain is strong could make all the difference.
YanıtlaSilI tend to agree current polls are overstating the results of the election, because a much larger number of Obama voters will stay home than McCain voters. Still, McCain will have a lot of disgusted or cynical Conservatives staying home or voting for "None of the Above" one way or another.