The Oxford English Dictionary will be online-only

The OED (Oxford English Dictionary) has been THE standard for the English Language. The 3rd edition has been in progress for 21 years, and is almost ready to ship in its normal paper form. But its owner has now announced that this will be the last paper edition of the hallowed dictionary which from now on will be produced only in electronic formats.

He said: “Until six months ago I was clinging to the idea that printed books would likely last for ever. Since the arrival of the iPad I am now wholly convinced otherwise.
“The printed book is about to vanish at extraordinary speed. I have two complete OEDs, but never consult them – I use the online OED five or six times daily. The same with many of my reference books – and soon with most.
“Books are about to vanish; reading is about to expand as a pastime; these are inescapable realities.”

This perhaps the most stunning prediction made by someone who doesn't sell iPad, Kindles, Nooks, or other eReaders. What do Mod-Bloggers think? Will paper books always have a place, or are we on the verge of a time where they are regarded as antiques fit only for display?

Here's what has to happen...

I think the pattern is now clear. Here is my prediction for the elections of 2008:

- Barack Obama wins narrowly in the electoral college. Less narrowly by popular vote.

- John McCain attempts to blame the loss on gaffes by Sarah Palin, despite the clear fact that it was the Bailout Bill which sealed his fate with the Base.

- Congress sees many incumbents turned out, but the balance remains approximately the same as it is today.

- The Republican Party implodes, showing itself to now lack core values or a common narrative. It will require approximately 2 years to forge a new Republican Party, rejecting the Bush Doctrine of Preemptive War.

- The Democratic Party will interpret the elections as a "mandate" and will quickly overreach themselves. By the end of the first year of Barack Obama's presidency, the Democratic Leadership will see themselves unable to pass a major initiative (probably Universal Health Care). Fractures begin to form in their coalition.

- A resurgent Republican Party makes significant Congressional gains in 2010, retakes the House but fails to win a majority in the Senate.

What do you think? Am I way off? Or does this jive with your own thoughts?

Two predictions coming out of New Hampshire

The record-breaking turnouts in Iowa and New Hampshire show extreme excitement about this year's primaries and elections. I predict two things:

1. This will lead to the highest turnout in most states in 50 years. People feel engaged and finally feel like one vote can make a difference.

2. This will lead to more conspiracy theories than in any modern election since Kennedy. People will be scrutinizing every tally, and any irregularities will immediately raise shouts of fraud, voter intimidation, and ballot stuffing. Few to none will be true, but they will dominate much of the news cycle.

If you are a local election official, take note now. Your people must be above reproach in their procedures, and you should still have a P.R. person standing at the ready in case the accusations begin to fly. Because it is not a matter of "if" but "when".

Still, this is shows democracy is alive and well in America. The more people involved and engaged, the better. If the only legacy of Barack Obama, Ron Paul, and Mike Huckabee is increased turnout in future elections, then that will be a legacy they can be proud of.

Update 12:30 PM EST: an excellent analysis of some of the conspiracies so far is up and worth a read. It shows pretty well that the initial analysis is lacking in credibility.

Visionaries...

People are always trying to see or understand how things are going to work in the future. I just found this video from the 1960s on how shopping and banking would be done in 1999. It's interesting and kind of funny. From the page I found it on:

Many visionaries who tried to forecast what daily life would be like for future generations made the mistake of simply projecting existing technologies as being bigger, faster, and more powerful. They often failed to anticipate that future technologies might take very different forms, might be put to previously unconsidered uses, and might accompany (or even help bring about) significant social changes.