FYI: The President is NOT your Friend. And He Shouldn't Be!

It is funny how the flow of politics works. Two years ago, the Democratic Party was literally in lockstep, riding the Tidal Wave of the 2008 elections. Republicans were in disarray, and everything seemed to be coming up Donkey. 2010 is the complete opposite, as Republicans are riding the Tidal Wave and Democrats are in disarray. This has lead some prominent Democrats to criticize or even curse out the president, as he tries to find a modus vivendi with the new Conservative majority.

Here's the reality, legislators of both parties, THE PRESIDENT IS NOT YOUR FRIEND. No president is. The whole system is set up to put the branches of government at odds, in order to preserve the rights of the People. So, the Executive SHOULD be looking out for his own ability to govern, and NOT worrying about your ability to get stuff done without him. You've seen what perfect party unity has gotten you - extremely unpopular bills passed despite CLEAR signs that the American people were against you - so maybe it is time for a little disunity to allow sanity to return.

Here's hoping a return to divided government means a return to humble government. And a government where checks and balances are seen for what they are - our most valuable hedge against tyranny (whether of the sinister or the well-meaning).

Republican vs Democratic Strategies

From Political Grafiti.

If you want to know why Incumbents will be thrown out in November...

...consider the political cowardice demonstrated by a Congress unwilling to pass a budget when the current one runs out tomorrow! Could anything be more emblematic of our problems than a legislature unwilling to even vote on keeping itself running? Clearly, incumbents realize any action will be criticized by their opponents. But don't they see that no action is at least equally contemptible?

Goodbye Congress 2010. We look forward to your replacement, and hope it looks nothing like the body that just left the dinner table without finishing the vegetables, or even offering to do the dishes.

Revolting in Moldova

Moldova recently had elections in which the results showed that approximately 50% of the vote went to the currently in power Communist party. In response, there has been a violent protest due to accusations of fraud. Many in Moldova have close ties to neighboring Romania. Moldova's leadership has been pro-Russian, but has started to lean pro-European due to pressure from the people. I've learned from friends in the area that Moldova has closed the border to Romanians. Americans will hopefully be allowed to cross the border, once trains start moving again.

Diebold admits election machines aren't properly audited

One of the most important parts of the systems I have worked on in the past are the audit logs. These logs track user and system activities, and often provide the ONLY reliable window into the true inner workings of your system. When something goes wrong, there is NOTHING better than being able to go back to the logs and see every step, in order, and see where it went wrong.

Unfortunately, Diebold's electronic election machines do not record everything. Adding to the long history of concerns about reliability, researchers have discovered that it is possible to delete votes from an election on a Diebold machine and nothing shows in the audit log. This means even if electoral fraud/manipulation were suspected, it could never be proven/detected by the system.

It is time for a truly open-source approach to this problem. The saying is "light disinfects". The more eyes on a piece of software, the harder it becomes to hide bugs like this.

Vote Switching in West Virgnia

Between these charges and the widespread allegations of voter fraud by ACORN, I am expecting we are in for a rash of after-election lawsuits about the results.

Three Putnam County voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans when they cast early ballots last week.

This is the second West Virginia county where voters have reported this problem. Last week, three voters in Jackson County told The Charleston Gazette their electronic vote for "Barack Obama" kept flipping to "John McCain".

In both counties, Republicans are responsible for overseeing elections. Both county clerks said the problem is isolated.

They also blamed voters for not being more careful.

"People make mistakes more than machines," said Jackson County Clerk Jeff Waybright.

I am betting on of the first things the next President/Congress will have to tackle is a way to restore faith in our electoral system. That may require abandoning the electronic machines that they mandated only a few years ago.

Here's what has to happen...

I think the pattern is now clear. Here is my prediction for the elections of 2008:

- Barack Obama wins narrowly in the electoral college. Less narrowly by popular vote.

- John McCain attempts to blame the loss on gaffes by Sarah Palin, despite the clear fact that it was the Bailout Bill which sealed his fate with the Base.

- Congress sees many incumbents turned out, but the balance remains approximately the same as it is today.

- The Republican Party implodes, showing itself to now lack core values or a common narrative. It will require approximately 2 years to forge a new Republican Party, rejecting the Bush Doctrine of Preemptive War.

- The Democratic Party will interpret the elections as a "mandate" and will quickly overreach themselves. By the end of the first year of Barack Obama's presidency, the Democratic Leadership will see themselves unable to pass a major initiative (probably Universal Health Care). Fractures begin to form in their coalition.

- A resurgent Republican Party makes significant Congressional gains in 2010, retakes the House but fails to win a majority in the Senate.

What do you think? Am I way off? Or does this jive with your own thoughts?

Vote Swapping Sites Are Legal

In the 2000 election, a new breed of website popped up which was both weird and fascinating. Vote swapping sites would allow a voter in a state with a close vote in the Presidential election (say Bush 45%, Gore 46%, Nader 9%) to swap their vote with a voter in a state where the election was clearly lopsided (say Bush 60%, Gore 35%, Nader 5%). A voter in the close state might "swap" a Nader vote in his state with a Gore vote in the lopsided state. This way, a Nader voter in the close-vote state could still ensure Nader's numerical number of votes stayed the same, without risking "throwing away his vote" when s/he would rather see Gore elected than Bush. At the time, most politicians were scandalized, and several sites were shut down by furious election officials. And the practical amongst us noted that it was a silly venture to use, since with a secret ballot there was no way to ensure the transaction actually took place on the other person's end.

Well, after years of legal wrangling, the courts have ruled vote swapping legal and efforts to shut down such websites as violating Free Speech! What does this mean? Probably not much in the short term, other than the return of vote swapping sites and much excitement amongst Ron Paul voters. But in the long term, in an age of close elections, it could be significant. Especially once political consultants figure out how to manipulate it for their own gain.

France Chooses Conservative for New President

French voters chose a conservative to be their president by a 53% to 47% margin Saturday. Nicolas Sarkozy is the new president. He had friendly words for America in his victory speech. He called Americans his "Friends" and said that France will stand with America when we need them. He did add the caveat that friends can disagree. It will be interesting to see if a new conservative leader in Europe can change attitudes and do some good.