While it has to be admitted that the Bush Administration will have large historical impact over the next two years, the attention of most of us has already begun shifting to the 2008 race for the president. Other than Hillary Clinton, we are not quite sure who is running. But the top two at this point on the GOP side appear to be John McCain and Rudolph Guiliani. Both, I would view as a huge tactical mistake for the Republican Party. McCain has already hown that he can not stand up to a long election season in his runs against Bush and Dole. He will run down and say something foolish. He may be a great man, but ultimately he is unlikely to be able to remain the media darling for the whole run and is likely to wind up alienating his base. Guiliani can stand up under pressure, we have seen that in his years of NYC politics and especially in 9/11. His great weakness is his unabashed Pro-Choice stand. I can not, and will not, vote for Rudy for president, even though I would vote him in for almost any other office in the political world. The president is fundamentally unable to stay out of the abortion debate, no matter how much he/she may want to.
So what do we need in the next presidential candidate? Well,I have a few observations:
- First, s/he must have an ideology. One of the greatest strengths of the GOP right now is that people know what we stand for. As opposed to the Democratic Party which is primarily defining themselves as "Not Bush." This was required for Reagan, it was required for Bush II. If we have someone without a strong ideology, at best we may have another one-term Bush I.
- Second, he/she must be willing to reverse some of GWB's decisions. The whole Bush II presidency has been a reaction to 9/11. And as with most "swerves" of history, we have overcorrected in many ways. The next candidate must be willing to praise what has been done, but admit it may be time to draw back somewhat. Specifically, the Patriot Act should be renegotiated, the doctrine of Preemptive War must be scaled back or eliminated, and Guantanamo and similar prisons must be revamped. Even the faithful have been worried about these for years.
- Third, she/he must be ready to cut the government's size quickly and decisively. Another problem with the post-9/11 overcorrection has been a government whose bloat would make FDR proud. This may have been required in order to establish the many new agencies around the DHS, but now it is time to streamline. This is required to keep taxes low, and to ensure that the government always understands it exists at the pleasure of the people and not the other way around.
- Fourth, this candidate must be strong on a few key planks of the platform: (1) Pro-Life, (2) Fiscally Conservative, and (3) focussed on Law and Order. These are the backbones of the GOP. Without them, the base is lost or weakened into irrelevance.
- Finally, they should make Tax Reform a major part of their platform. I do not know what people are hearing elsewhere, but everywhere I am people are finally willing to talk about different tax schemes and understand exactly how the present system is broken. I am a fan of the Flat Tax, but whichever way they go, any GOP candidate should make this issue their own, and drive the debate. This is the "big idea" of this campaign that is waiting to happen.
You may notice a few things I left out of that list. First, race and gender are not there. Frankly, I think this is probably the first election where one could run without their race or gender really mattering. With the appearance of Hillary Clinton, Condoleeza Rice, and Colin Powell as strong contenders on the political scene, the issue has been faced and moved past. Second, the Iraq War is not on my list. Chances are by the time the race is truly under way, we will know the outcome of our intervention in Iraq. Either a democratic government will be well and truly on its way to effectiveness, or it will have splintered. Either way, it will not be a matter of "taking a stand" by that time, but of honestly assessing the realities on the ground. Neither is a "platform plank" if we are wise about it. Third, no mention of Global Warming. It is owned solidly by the Democrats, and we have no chance to reclaim it in 2 years. Whether it exists or not, Republicans should continue our efforts for reducing pollution while minimizing effects on business. No one who is a Global Warming fanatic is likely to leave the Dems and come over to us. More likely to try and strengthen the greens.
Those are my thoughts. Did I leave anything out? Or am I just an idiot for refusing to vote for Rudy?