17 Şubat 2008 Pazar
Kosovo declares independence
As Hillary Clinton makes the case for the return of a Clinton presidency, we are seeing echoes of one of the legacies of the first President Clinton. A decade after the end of the war in Bosnia, Kosovo has declared independence from Serbia. So far, the Serbians are angry, but vowing to oppose the move only diplomatically. But in the Powder Keg of Europe, can we ever be sure we are far from war?
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Far from war? Yes. There are no signs that there will be any large scale armed resistance over Kosovo's independence, however, Bush's talk of strengthening peace may be folly.
YanıtlaSilSerbia, og course, is not the problem in this respect. The problem is the ongoing paradigm shift in global power. As where the situation 100 years ago, today we see clear signs of shift in both economic as well as technological and demographical dominance in the world.
The medium term consequences of the conflict arising sound Kosovo can be stark: Playing Serbia out of the arms of the EU, into a Russian stranglehold may lead to Russian military bases in the Western Balkans, on the EU's borders. It may also lead to Russian missiles stationed in Europe - being too close to the prospected US-missile shield to make it effective.
Worse, however, is how the countries in Indochina, a region with 300 million people and a rapidly growing industrial capacity, finds together with Indonesia, China, and Russia, in opposing the EU and the US.
Let us hope peace remains. The possible alliance of the before mentioned states will soon outgrow the West's capacity in exercising global power, and no-one want a repetition of the process of the last paradigm shift the world experienced, from 1914 to 1945.