The Future of China

Bill Rice from the Fourth Rail takes a stab at forecasting China's future. While some of his points are valid, I can't help but thinking that his conclusion is wrong when he says:

China's radicalism and its stoking the embers of nationalism can only scare neighboring countries. China's recent moves, including the threatening of "non-peaceful means" to re-unify Taiwan, can only be seen with a sense of wariness in Tokyo, New Delhi, Canberra and Seoul. All of these democratic nations can afford and are expanding their military capabilities. China would be well advised to walk with a softer footprint.

This is more like how I see it happening...

While it's true that these other nations can build up some military, they will never compete on a grand scale with China. Instead they will, like France and some other European countries, decide to move in close to China in order to build positive relations. They will build trade relations and make China rich while the Chinese military grows exponentially to become the defender of the East. China's military will become THE power and it will be used to defend its allies in the east who have worked along side of the giant to make it a superpower.

Why do I see this happening? Because it's already happened before, after WWII. But it was the US that took on the role. The American military force and economy was unparalleled so the Europeans didn't even bother building their armies back up. They simply set up lucrative trade agreements with us, and let us spend our money building up the best military in the world. They knew that when trouble came, we would move to protect them as they are our allies, and we protect those who are good to us. The situation will repeat itself in China after the American age of superiority has declined.

Most countries simply don't have the will or the resources to build up a huge fighting force. As a result, they offer other countries incentives for defense against aggression. Even though the East is a growing land of economic opportunity, I believe that we will see the same trends continue that have dominated history to this point.