The prevailing assumption in Washington is that if something really big is going wrong - like North Korea and Iran going nuclear - it must be because America messed up. Yes, the Bush nonproliferation policy has been pretty dysfunctional, but the real problem is that those parties with the leverage to make a diplomatic difference refuse to use it. (We have already largely isolated Iran and North Korea. There is nothing much more America can threaten, short of using force.)Sometimes is makes you wonder. If the world doesn't want America as "The World's Policeman", why won't the local powers police their own spheres of influence? (Answer: Because in the short term, its a lot easier/cheaper to criticize the U.S.)
This is not a joke. If North Korea and Iran both go nuclear, that step may trigger a major realignment of geopolitics - the likes of which has not been seen since the end of the cold war. If North Korea sets off a nuclear test, how long will Japan continue relying on the U.S. for its nuclear shield? And what will South Korea and Taiwan do? And if Japan or South Korea goes nuclear, how may an anxious China react? And if Shiite Iran becomes a nuclear power - in tandem with Iraq's being run by Shiites - the Sunni Arab world will go nuts, not to mention the Israelis.
11 Mayıs 2005 Çarşamba
EU & China Not Serious About Nukes
Thomas Friedman has up another insightful column about what is needed to end the nuclear threats in North Korea and Iran. Unfortunately, it is the one thing that is not going to happen - China and Europe getting serious about the issue, even to the detriment of their own economies.
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