The Mystery of the North Korean Train Explosion

North Korea continues to claim that the train explosion is a minor incident caused by some understandable bit of incompetence between some train operators. Some reports claim that two trains collided where one was carrying a load of dynamite. Another report claims that fertilizer was in one train and fuel oil in another and when an electrical charge ran thru the train the components exploded. Either way, we have to be skeptical in light of the latest reports of hundreds of deaths and thousands of homes obliterated in the blink of an eye. This kind of damage seems a lot bigger than any of the scenarios being floated by the North Korean government, which leads to all kind of speculation. Perhaps this is inevitable in a closed society which is forced - the first time - to beg for outside help. But these have led me to wonder about several possible scenarios.

• Is this a sign of North Korea's first homegrown terrorist? I can't imagine the kind of Fuel Oil and Fertilizer bomb that Timothy McVeigh used would be impossible to build even in a society like North Korea - they need to keep the farms moving, especially in the current drought/famine.



• Are we looking at the remains of some portion of the North Korean nuclear program? It need not be radioactive material to be part of the program. Even the most sophisticated nuclear device needs a trigger made of conventional explosives to get the chain reaction working. High-powered plastic explosives could certainly have caused this kind of damage.



• Is this a new kind of punishment campaign for North Korea? Is this their way of punishing a wayward province in a way that the USA can not condemn? "Why, no Mr. Bush, we did not murder thousands of our own people - it was a simple train accident!"



• Is this the first sign of the cracks in the Kim Jung Il government? An authoritarian communist country like North Korea requires complete control 100% of the time. If this kind of issue can get past them, it may be a sign that control is breaking down and the government is losing its grip on the country.



• Is this the result of North Korea's crushing poverty as its citizens begin raiding public works to get tradeable supplies for the black market? In the USSR, this was occasionally a problem as citizens would raid the materials in buildings, railroad lines, etc. to get real material that could be used to trade for the real stuff they needed to live.

Or maybe the North Korean government is telling the truth, and this is a tragic accident. Either way, the closed nature of their society leaves the world wondering what is real, what is true, and what is simply a bureaucratic attempt to cover someone's butt. This leads to suspicion on our side of the world, and leads the people to wonder for how long we should be bailing out a dictator who only shows the slightest glimmer of concern for his own people in disasters like this. How long until this man is overthrown or tamed enough to reenter the international community?



Or one day will the world community have to ask the Red Cross not to help until Kim Jong Il steps down and releases his death grip on his suffering people?