History makes me think we'll see a Democratic President in '08 but a Republican Congress

I was talking about this wth CRChair and realized it might make for a good Mod-Blog article. I am thinking that American history shows us that the Presidency is the Democrats to lose in 2008. Historically - with the exception of the Civil War times - any party that is in power for 8 years, especially with both Congress and the Presidency, requires some time out of power in order to reform itself and shake off the parasites that always follow power. As such, a Democratic president will shock the GOP into cleaning house, doing a reality check against the grassroots, and prepare themselves for 2012.

That being said, the current Democratic Congress is making no friends, either. They are failing to act like serious lawmakers, but rather stand up to GWB only when it is easy and tend to back down on even their core issues when they become inconvenient. This is likely to lead to another backlash in 2008, and return us to the state that Americans seem to like best - a Presidency and Congress in the hands of different parties.

But even if they think I am right, the major parties should not get complacent. There is plenty of room in this election for a Third Party to step in and steal the election from out under the major parties. We are in a time of shifting alliances within American politics, and it is not unimaginable that the shift may bring about a new 2-party system to replace the old.