I am no gambler, but I enjoy watching the pros on ESPN from time to time. One of the sayings you hear over and over again is "Strength means weakness, and weakness means strength." i.e. If your opponent seems overly aggressive, it probably means he has nothing in his hand but a pair of twos, and is trying to buy his way out of the hand.
I could not help but think of this when I heard about Bin Laden's offer of a "truce" to the West. For a man who glorifies in overblown rhetoric to suddenly seem magnanimous seems to me to show he knows something has gone seriously wrong. My guess is either:
1. OBL knows he has lost the moderate Muslim world, and is hoping this brings some back, or
2. OBL was more seriously hurt by the missile attack in Pakistan than we originally thought and is trying to buy time to recruit more leaders, or
3. OBL knows that his time is short, and is trying to create a legacy with some inkling of peace, to be remembered by.
Either way, it seems to me this is a desperate bluff, and an encouragement to the War on Terror.
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