The Reality: An Economy Runs on HOPE

While reading a report today on the current economic "meltdown" going on in overseas markets, I came across this paraphrase of George Soros.

Billionaire investor George Soros said he believed the United States was already experiencing the pain of a double dip recession and that Republican opposition to Obama's fiscal stimulus plans was to blame for sluggish growth.

Of course, Mr. Soros's actual words were far more nuanced. But this reflects the current reality of politics - both sides are more interested in blame than giving the electorate a clear view of their choices.

So, let me give it a try. I add the disclaimer that I am NOT an economist, and I am sure many economists would ridicule my explanation as overly simplistic. You judge for yourselves.

Everyone agrees we are in the middle of a bad situation. To use a fairly standard analogy, the economy is on fire.
--> Democrats want to beat the fire by spending more. They want to use borrowed money to build the economy faster than the fire can destroy it.
--> Republicans want to beat the fire by spending less. They want to fix the underlying causes of the fire right away, trusting the fire to go out on its own, which will eventually allow new building to resume safely in the future.

But both sides are dismissive of the opposition:
--> Democrats say the Republican plan is like revising building codes in the middle of a fire - it does nothing for those suffering NOW.
--> Republicans say the Democratic plan is like adding fuel to the fire while it is still burning - it may make it harder to see in the short-term, but in the long term it just makes the fire worse.

The problem is, a "fire" is a bad analogy for analyzing the Economy. A fire attacks concrete things, destroying them, requiring people to grow new trees, mine new steel, and use human labor to put it all back together. The Economy, on the other hand, is a more nebulous concept. Value is something which exists in the mind of a human being, based on some "real" factors (like supply and demand) but also based on intangible factors (like desire and status). Value can be created from nothing - consider what you are buying when you buy a baseball card or purchase a Netflix subscription - and can be destroyed without anything concrete having been destroyed (as when a writer is found guilty of plagiarism or fraud). The economy is not built on debt or savings, but rather on HOPE.

Look at it this way.
--> If you have HOPE to have a family, you'll buy a house for them. If you have no hope, why bother?
--> If you have HOPE that you'll have a job tomorrow, you'll take the time to buy more than the essentials. If not, you'll hoard what you have.
--> If you have HOPE to eventually become employed, you'll invest time, money, effort in education. If not, you'll look for ways to pass the time.
--> If you have HOPE that you'll be repaid, you'll extend a loan. If not, you'll keep the money to yourself and invest in treasury bonds.

So, do Democrats or Republicans have the right solution? Neither. Both. It is not a question of finding the right value for a variable in the equation. It is a matter of convincing people there is HOPE for the future, so they will act, spend, and invest. And at the moment, all the Federal Government has done is convince people to look elsewhere for HOPE.

Keep that in mind this next election season.

All too true

From DogHouse Diaries. Click on the image or the link for a closer look.

The most prepared person in the room wins!

A large portion of my job is helping to plan future projects, and come up with designs for new logic that will run for decades to come. It is tough when there are so many different voices in the room, each with their own perspective and priorities (for example, each developer wants to use the coolest new technology because it's fun, each manager wants to re-use existing stuff because it's cheap). How do I make sure it is my design that wins? As this article reminds us, it is by being the most prepared person in the room.

When they gathered at that first meeting to hash things out, Jefferson made sure to show up with meticulously prepared architectural drawings, detailed budgets for construction and operation, a proposed curriculum, and the names of specific faculty he wanted to import from Europe. No one else in the room was even remotely as prepared; the group essentially had to capitulate to Jefferson’s vision, and the University was eventually founded more or less in accordance with his plans.

Two of the most powerful forces in human nature are laziness and self-interest. While a man will argue himself until he's red in the face to defend his selfish point of view, he is unlikely to bother if anyone gives him the excuse to be lazy instead. Give a man a plan that is already fully-formed, and 99% of the time he'll go along with it.

Please, use this revalation only for Good. ;-)

Are "Bath Salts" the new designer drug?

There is an old joke that asks, "Who was the first person to look at a slimy snail and think, 'That looks tasty!'" But human ingenuity knows no bounds when it is trying to fill it's belly. And unfortunately, it appears it is equally brilliant in finding ways to destroy the brain. Consider this: evidence that next wave in the Drug War is bath salts. I can't imagine anyone willingly snorting something as random as this, "just to see what happens". And yet, this scourge is so widespread that many states are considering emergency bans.

Sold under such names as Ivory Wave, Bliss, White Lightning and Hurricane Charlie, the chemicals can cause hallucinations, paranoia, rapid heart rates and suicidal thoughts, authorities say. The chemicals are in products sold legally at convenience stores and on the Internet as bath salts and even plant foods. However, they aren't necessarily being used for the purposes on the label...

Ryan said cathinone, the parent substance of the drugs, comes from a plant grown in Africa and is regulated. He said MDPV and mephedrone are made in a lab, and they aren't regulated because they're not marketed for human consumption. The stimulants affect neurotransmitters in the brain, he said.

"It causes intense cravings for it. They'll binge on it three or four days before they show up in an ER. Even though it's a horrible trip, they want to do it again and again," Ryan said.

Human greed knows no bounds... but shame is there right behind it

This story doesn't require much commment.

A British father faked a burglary at his home and claimed his daughter’s Christmas presents were stolen in a bid to get more gifts from sympathetic neighbors, local media reported Monday...

Unemployed Wood then posed for photographs for his local newspaper with his two-year-old daughter Abbey, saying Christmas was ruined.

However, he admitted the scam to police hours after the newspaper story was published, saying he could not live with the shame of using his little girl.

Crimes like this are always found out, whether thru good police work or thru good old feelings of shame. If you're in a tough spot, don't go to the low road. Ask for help. You can usually find someone willing to step up.

Do I resemble that remark?

It's a valid question to ask

Remember, your GPS is not infallible

I love GPS technology. Unlike the rest of my family, I have NO sense of direction and a mental block against remembering street names. So my Garmin Nuvi 780 (and the Navigon app on my iPhone) have saved me from any number of near-disasters trying to get from point A to point B. But I am almost an Information Technology professional, and therefore know any system is only as reliable as the worst programmer/engineer/tester working on it. So, I always remember to question the device and not assume it has more common sense than I do.

In Oregon, GPS systems can direct drivers to thousands of miles of Forest Service logging roads that lace the state's mountain ranges. In the winter, they are often plugged with snow.
On Christmas Day, a Nevada couple took one such road in Evinger's County and spent three days stuck. They were rescued when a break in atmospheric conditions allowed them to signal their coordinates to 911.
Three Portlanders and their small dog got into trouble Monday when their vehicle slid off a forest road as they were using GPS directions to a hot springs in the southern Willamette Valley. Lane County officials said the three and the dog were exhausted and mildly hypothermic after walking 17 miles without survival gear to get into cell phone range and call 911.
Griffin's family was rescued when friends and relatives used a GPS like Griffin's and duplicated the route they assumed the family had plotted. That led them straight to the family. The three had been stuck about 24 hours.

Remember, whenever possible, double-check the GPS route against the map, and be especially aware that the GPS has no idea about the capabilities of - or lack thereof - your particular vehicle.

Fly Decals lead to cost savings

My mother was a sociology major in college, and sometimes enjoys telling us stories about the foibles of human interaction. So I am thinking she will greatly enjoy this particular story. Essentially, bathroom managers across the world have found that attaching decals of flies to urinals inspire men to aim more carefully, and thus reduce maintenance costs due to "spillage".

The presence of a fly in a urinal literally changes human behavior, he thinks — or at least the behavior of human males.

"Apparently," Berenbaum says, in males, "there is a deep-seated instinct to aim at targets..." When flies were introduced at Schiphol Airport, spillage rates dropped 80 percent, says manager Aad Keiboom. A change like that, of course, translates into major savings in maintenance costs.

I am thinking mothers across America are reading this story and pulling out their sharpies to tame their male children's bathroom habits.

Human Nature is perplexing, disgusting

Some days, I truly do not understand my fellow man. Consider this story. A woman - either crazy or criminal - drives up to a Burlington Coat Factory in a (fraudulently) rented limousine and announces she has won the lottery and will pay for the purchases of anyone in the store up to $500. People go wild, buying everything in sight. After several thousands of dollars worth of merchandise has been rung up, the people figure out the woman has been lying. She has no money. So what do they do?

By the time employees realized Brown didn't have any cash to pay, police said, she already had taken off in the limo.
That's when angry customers, realizing they weren't getting free coats, began throwing merchandise on the floor and grabbing clothes without paying for them, Nace said.
"Everybody was like, 'I still want my free stuff,' and that started the riot," he said. "It looks like (Hurricane) Katrina went through the store."
Police said they have no way of tracking down the customers who stole items and fled, but they're reviewing surveillance video.

So, person A wrong me, and I feel this gives me the right to take vengeance upon person B. Is it any mystery why this world is so messed up?!

This should also be a cautionary tale for legislators looking to reform Health Care. Remember, people may not thank you for your efforts. In fact, it is likely no matter what you do, they will feel cheated out of the "free stuff" they feel they were promised.

Human Nature

Another Reason It's Tough Being a Banker These days

I love "Not Always Right"! As a bank employee, this tickled me.

Me: “Would you like to sign up for our free checking account?”

Customer: “No, I usually keep my money in my sofa for safe keeping.”

Me: “You shouldn’t do that.”

Customer: “But it gains interest.”

Me: “How does that work?”

Customer: “When people come over, they keep losing their change in my couch.”

If you needed proof that "digital" is not always better...

...look no further than this article.

There is a commercial about the coming "digital switch" next year for television which brags "You know digital makes everything better." We need reminding that a "digital" solution is only as good as the developer who wrote it and the hardware behind it. I am wondering how many people will be without TV at all next year, when their new digital TVs or digital tuners are load tested for the first time, and the manufacturers stop answering customer service calls.

What color is the bikeshed?

Anyone who has spent ANY time in business has learned that it is important for any new idea to leave room for the boss to add some obvious enhancement in order to put his/her fingerprints on it or it'll never get approved. This article is an excellent explanation of that phenomenon and gives good reasons why a multi-million dollar project can be approved without comment, and a cheap, simple fix can take months of debate before it is funded.

Motorcycles on the Rise

1st MG ride - lunch stop
Originally uploaded by adrienna.


At my work, motorcycles have never been popular. It is probably that I work at a bank which tends toward the staid and conservative, but aside from one hacker who likes showing off his "Fonzie" side, no one ever thought about coming to work on a two-wheeler. But the last 2 months have changed everything. With gas over $4/gallon, we now have 5 regular motorcyclists, 5 cars sporting bike racks at all times, and several people biking to work (with over an hour ride to and from home).

What changes are Mod-bloggers seeing in people's driving/commuting behaviors at your job? Is it just me, or are motorcycles, scooters, and bicycles on the rise... at least until the first snow?

Deep Thought of the Day: Human Idols and Heroes

Recently, a man in our church has been in the papers and charged with acts that shed serious doubt on his good standing. This man was an Elder of the church, a former pastor, and currently the head of a major charitable organization. The papers have certainly exaggerated the charges, bringing out rumors as well as facts, but it appears at least some of the charges are true.

It has reminded me of the importance of NOT trusting in human idols or heroes.

As children - and even as adults - we are all tempted to pick heroes whom we attempt to model our lives after. For some, it is a great historical figure like George Washington or Teddy Roosevelt. For some, it is a family member - Mom or Dad or a grandparent. For others, it is a mentor - a pastor, a teacher, a counsellor. We look up to these people, and pattern ourselves after them.

But the reality is that very few humans can stand up to the pressure of this kind of idealization. Historians have an obsession with taking heroes off of their pedestals - as seen more recently in the obsession with Thomas Jefferson and Sally Hemmings. And even the best men have feet of clay and weak moments. Martin Luther - who stood strong against the Catholic Church under the threat of execution - was an ardent anti-semite. We now know that Mother Theresa often had deep doubts about the existence of God.

Remember, only God can stand up to the intensity of human expectations. One of the reasons He gave us Jesus was so that we could see one perfect human. For all the others, be kind when judging their frailties. Be just, but also be kind.

Bathroom finder

There are few of us who have not at least once been out and about and suddenly had a critical need for a bathroom. With most places having an "employees only" policy, it can be hard to know where to turn when the moment strikes. Now, Immodium - the makers of the popular anti-diarrhea medication - have posted an online bathroom finder which works by zip code. I can't help thinking this is the kind of thing which REALLY should be a mobile site for quick searching on your cell phone. But it is a start!

We could use a few patch days

Let us not forget about EVIL

There are many differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But one of the main reasons that I hope Obama wins the Democratic nomination - even if I am a bit nervous about his policies should he win the presidency - is that unlike the Clintons, he has a real idea of "Evil." To the Clintons, "Evil" is "those who oppose us." To many in America (not just "liberals") "evil" is "misunderstood people" or "victims of abuse, reacting." But scripture teaches, and experience bears out, Evil is a very real thing and it is embraced by many in our world. This commentary reminds us that even in a week without many headlines about atrocities, Evil is alive and strong in our world.

"A suicide bomber killed 14 people at an opening ceremony for a Sri Lankan marathon. More than 90 others were wounded."

In Israel, Haaretz reported that an Arab woman has been shot in an attempted honor killing. She was to be the ninth female member of her family to be killed. "Eight women from this family were murdered in the past six years, all in connection with 'family honor.'" Male relatives had murdered them all because they brought shame on their Muslim family by not marrying the men picked for them or otherwise disobeying family religious dictates.

These are only the news items of the last seven days. I purposely chose a period without dramatic headlines. And, of course, no news came out of North Korea, which continues to be the world's largest concentration camp.

One of the bright points of the Bush presidency has been his ability to talk about Evil and the urgency of confronting it. I don't cotton to the idea of preemptive war, but we need to stay ahead of the curve and not allow Evil a foothold in our nation or our hearts.

Why did I spend $500 on an iPhone?

Because of the cutting-edge interface? So that I can consolidate the various technologies in my pocket? Because of the integration with Apple computers? So that I can buy music with the Wifi Music Store? Nope.

So I can carry on "Simpsons Quote Battles" with my brother most effectively.