Scott Adams predicts the end of paid written content

Scott Adams of Dilbert fame is known for being willing to float a crazy theory here and there. But usually, even when floated for comic effect, his theories have at least enough truth to make you go "Hmmmm..." So when he predicts the end of paid writing - and the possible end of quality writing - it is time to pay attention.

Those of you reading this blog are already savvy enough to find and download any content you want for free. But I'll bet the average 40-something user of the Internet still wouldn't know how to search the Internet for criminally free content. At some point, I assume, a Google search for any popular book title will return an illegal source at the top of the page. When that happens, Amazon.com will primarily be selling electronics, household products, and clothes.

I predict that the profession known as "author" will be retired to history in my lifetime, like blacksmith and cowboy. In the future, everyone will be a writer, and some will be better and more prolific than others. But no one will pay to read what anyone else creates. People might someday write entire books - and good ones - for the benefit of their own publicity, such as to promote themselves as consultants, lecturers, or the like. But no one born today is the next multi-best-selling author. That job won't exist.

What do Mod-Blog readers think? Is the role of paid novelist a doomed profession? The professional cartoonist?

It is official: Writers strike tenative deal

It has been officially announced now that the WGA has reached a tenative deal to end the strike, and bring back scripted TV and movies. The details can be found here. Now, it just remains to be seen if shows that were interrupted by the strike (HEROES, etc.) will be continued for a full season, or if networks will start work on the next season instead.

Rewriting: The part of writing I dread

Some of you know that both Ward and I are writers (amateur, largely unpublished) with dreams of one day writing the Great American Novel (by which I mean "a novel published in America which sells a few copies to people we don't know, who enjoy it"). We have very different styles, and very different work styles. I tend to ruminate an idea for months, and then put it down on paper in a flurry of activity... and then wait more months before anything else goes down. Ward tends to write, then rewrite, then rewrite some more - honing the story each time into a sharper, better form. As you can tell from my style, I hate rewriting. I don't mind doing basic word edits (let's use "crimson" or "vermillion" instead of "red") but larger rewrites are something I dread. I'd rather put aside a finished first draft and get on with writing something else flawed, but new. (This may be why I am still unpublished... or it may be that I have rarely, if ever, actually submitted anything to a magazine or publishing house.)

If you are like me, this article may be a real help to you. It lays out the reasons and methodologies of the Rewrite. And explains why it is important to the process.

Things that make you go, "Hmmmm..."

I must admit it would explain a lot of what I see on my way driving into work these days.

Writers Guild Strikes

It is official. The Hollywood Writers Guild is now on strike, which means new scripts for all scripted shows and movies have now been shelved until the dispute is resolved. This will hit television first, where daily scripted shows like The Tonight Show, The Colbert Report, and others won't have a writing staff. But it also will affect motion pictures as well.

The two major issues, as I understand them are:

1. Writers are still paid residuals on DVDs based on a "preliminary deal" designed back when they were an experimental, emerging medium. At the time, writers, actors, and directors agreed to take a much smaller residual than on VHS tapes in order to support the new format. Now that DVDs are virtually the entire market, they want them brought to parity. But studios want to keep the status quo in order to keep profits up in a time when illegal downloads are eating into the market.

2. Studios want to apply the same logic to downloadable shows that was applied to DVDs originally, since they are still an experimental emerging market. Writers feel burned by the DVD experience and want to ensure that they are not in the same place 10 years from now on the "downloadable issue.

Here is hoping both sides can come to an agreement quickly which is of benefit to both. If not, around January we may be seeing a flood of reruns and reality series, and shortly after theater chains may start to suffer from lack of content to bring in consumers.

Gay films and the viewing public

It's hard to believe that just 2 years ago people were excited or angry about the success of Brokeback Mountain. I never saw the movie, though my wife tells me it was quite good. At the time, everyone was saying that the movie had broken all sorts of barriers and that a windfall of great gay movies and gay leading characters were coming as a result of the success of the movie. I guess all those predictions were wrong. This article examines why those predictions were wrong. The article is definitely slanted in the pro-gay direction, but is worth a read. The article gives a lot of good reasons, but I think that they miss the point of demographics. Most estimates put the total gay population of either the US or the world at about 10%. Obviously that means that 90% fall into the straight category. If only 10% of the population is gay, why then should (or would) more than 10% of lead characters be gay. I know that the gay population wants someone they can relate to, but for better or for worse they are the minority and thus are going to have a minority of lead characters. If you're going to make a movie that's going to relate to people then you need to aim at the greatest number of people to fit that category and when it comes to sexual orientation that's going to be straight folks. Personally, I don't have a problem with gay characters as long as they're written with balance and their sexual orientation isn't thrown in my face, but that goes for straight characters as well. So I guess what I'm looking for is good writing and that doesn't have anything to do with sexual orientation.

Kirk vs Picard

This will be of interest to the writers/Trekkies (Trekers?) in our audience. George Takei
and Wil Wheaton have announced a writing competition where every week a story with the theme of Kirk vs. Picard will be picked as a winner. Not being much of a Star Trek writer, this doesn't interest me too much, but those that enjoy writing sci-fi and Star Trek (yeah you Nomad) would probably be smart to enter one of their fabulous stories.