Fukushima Daichi: How did I miss this?!

I've been following the Japan tragedy closely, and somehow I missed big news on the U.S. impact of the disaster. Did I miss it, or is the news media not reporting it?

In the US, physician Janette Sherman MD and epidemiologist Joseph Mangano published an essay shedding light on a 35 per cent spike in infant mortality in northwest cities that occurred after the Fukushima meltdown, and may well be the result of fallout from the stricken nuclear plant.

The eight cities included in the report are San Jose, Berkeley, San Francisco, Sacramento, Santa Cruz, Portland, Seattle, and Boise, and the time frame of the report included the ten weeks immediately following the disaster. [Emphasis mine.]

This disaster is starting to look Biblical in its proportions.

UPDATE 10:42 PM EST: Here is the essay It is merely suggestive, not definitive. No study has been done, merely an overview of infant mortality rates before and after the Fukushima Daichi disaster.

How would YOU respond to a Fukushima-type disaster

As we look at Japan with pity as they try to deal with the Fukushima Diachi nuclear disaster, it raises a very important question: HOW WOULD I REACT TO SUCH A DISASTER? Living in the New York Metropolitan area, there are a number of nuclear reactors within a few hours drive. And most of them could throw fallout my way in the case of a major accident. So what do I do? Luckily, some websites have posted maps showing the likely evacuation areas around NYC, Chicago, and LA for various nuclear plants.

This is useful info to have. If nothing else, it tells me that my best bet is to head NORTH in case of a disaster, as heading South might simply take me deeper into another reactor's radioactive shadow.

Fukushima now on par with Chernobyl

On the "International Nuclear Event Scale", Japan's Fukushima Daichi plant is now officially on par with Chernobyl. International agencies had been arguing for this classification for weeks, but the Japanese government had been stubbornly classifying the event on par with Three Mile Island instead. Now that radiation is leaking into the Pacific Ocean, it appears Japan's reservoir of denial has run out.

Japan's nuclear crisis may be even worse than we think

In the weeks since the tsunami, Japan has continued to battle adverse conditions at the Fukushima Daichi nuclear plant. But as the American attention span wanes, most news agencies are ready to move on. But it appears that the danger at the plant is not decreasing, and may actually be on the rise. A new NRC report paints a dire picture of plant perhaps only a few steps away from another major leak or meltdown risk.

The document also suggests that fragments or particles of nuclear fuel from spent fuel pools above the reactors were blown “up to one mile from the units,” and that pieces of highly radioactive material fell between two units and had to be “bulldozed over,” presumably to protect workers at the site. The ejection of nuclear material, which may have occurred during one of the earlier hydrogen explosions, may indicate more extensive damage to the extremely radioactive pools than previously disclosed...

The assessment provides graphic new detail on the conditions of the damaged cores in reactors 1, 2 and 3. Because slumping fuel and salt from seawater that had been used as a coolant is probably blocking circulation pathways, the water flow in No. 1 “is severely restricted and likely blocked.” Inside the core itself, “there is likely no water level,” the assessment says, adding that as a result, “it is difficult to determine how much cooling is getting to the fuel.” Similar problems exist in No. 2 and No. 3, although the blockage is probably less severe, the assessment says.

What can the air in Seattle tell us about the Fukushima nuclear reactors?

Science is a wonderful thing. Not only does it give us fun gadgets and fascinating theories, but it also allows us to draw highly-accurate conclusions about events happening far, far away. Since the earthquake in Japan, a team at the University of Washington at Seattle has been testing air filters from university buildings for radioactive particles. Their results have allowed them to gauge exactly where the real threat comes from Fukushima Diachi. Even though, they are approximately 4800 miles apart.

The first comes from the amount of iodine-131 and tellurium-132 which are both short-lived with half lives of 8 and 3 days respectively. That indicates that they must have come from fuel rods that were recently active rather than from spent fuel...

Finally, there are a huge number of possible breakdown products from nuclear fission in a reactor and yet the Seattle team found evidence of only three fission product elements--iodine, cesium and tellurium. "This points to a specifific process of release into the atmosphere," they say.

Cesium Iodide is highly soluble in water. So these guys speculate that what they're seeing is the result of contaminated steam being released into the atmosphere.

16% of USA Radiation Monitors Offline for Japan Nuclear Crisis

So far, the nuclear crisis in Japan has posed little threat to the shores of the United States. While traces of radiation have been detected, carried by the winds, none have neared life-threatening or even health-threatening levels. But the disaster has showed up something important - the American radiation-monitoring system may not be adequate for our own disaster. 16% of all detectors were offline for the disaster.

In California, home to two seaside nuclear plants located close to earthquake fault lines, federal officials said four of the 11 stationary monitors were offline for repairs or maintenance last week. The Environmental Protection Agency did not immediately say why the monitors were inoperable, but did not fix them until several days after low levels of radiation began drifting toward the mainland U.S.

About 20 monitors out of 124 nationwide were out of service earlier this week, including units in Harlingen, Tex. and Buffalo, N.Y. on Friday, according to the EPA.

While the failure rate is scary to say the least - especially in an age where we fear dirty bombs and/or suitcase nukes - this served as a good test of the system. Now, we have a chance to fix the problem, rather than letting the problems languish for lack of attention.

We've entered a time of Heroes

There are days when the disaster in Tokyo is overwhelming. And then there are moments that bring it into sharp relief. Like, for example, this quote regarding the rescue workers trying to bring the Fukushima nuclear reactors back under control.

"They need to stop pulling out people—and step up with getting them back in the reactor to cool it. There is a recognition this is a suicide mission," the official said.

Let's not let up praying for the workers and their families. Even if their heroism successfully saves the reactors, it is likely they will not live to see the first anniversary of the Earthquake.

Why is nuclear hysteria on the rise in Japan...

...even as the risk of meltdown is falling? New Scientist has the scoop and it proves yet again that it's not the problem you expect that gets you - it's the one that you didn't realize was coming. Or the one caused by a complex series of unlikely events.

The pools are housed on the top floors of the reactor buildings. Spent fuel rods are transferred to them as soon as they come out of the reactor itself, and are kept under water to cool them down and trap the radioactive material within them. Once they have cooled down enough, the rods are then transferred to outdoor pools for long-term storage.

It is the pools inside the reactor buildings that are causing the problem. Two of the reactor buildings - 1 and 3 - have lost parts of their roofs, thanks to the hydrogen explosions that have taken place over the last few days. While these explosions apparently did not damage the reactors within, they have left the pools exposed to the outside air.

The "Nuclear Rennaisance" is over

As the Middle East has destabilized and British Petroleum dumped thousands of tons of crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, nuclear-power advocates were seeing a sudden rise in interest in building new, safer power plants. The idea was that modern Nuclear Power was far safer than the days of 3 Mile Island or Chernobyl, so America could power herself without Mideast Oil and without fear of Meltdown. But news of as many as 6 reactors failing in post-tsunami Japan including one which is probably in the middle of a partial meltdown has likely doomed this nascent movement toward energy independence. After all, what politician or regulator is going to approve a new power plant (even a modern, safer one) with smoking radioactive ruins across the Pacific Ocean?

Update 6:02 am: A good summary of worst-case scenarios and an explanation of why Japan was unprepared for this nuclear crisis.

Windows Virus targetted Iranian Nuke Facilities

It is no longer a thought experiment. The age of Cyber-Warfare has begun. The only question is, who created this thing? The USA, Israel, France, Russia? I'm betting there is a tell-all book already written, waiting for the right moment.

The malware, however, doesn’t just sabotage any frequency converter. It inventories a plant’s network and only springs to life if the plant has at least 33 frequency converter drives made by Fararo Paya in Teheran, Iran, or by the Finland-based Vacon.

Even more specifically, Stuxnet targets only frequency drives from these two companies that are running at high speeds – between 807Hz and 1210Hz. Such high speeds are used only for select applications. Symantec is careful not to say definitively that Stuxnet was targeting a nuclear facility, but notes that “frequency converter drives that output over 600Hz are regulated for export in the United States by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as they can be used for uranium enrichment.”

Let's leave the nuclear fireworks in the Past

Security thru Obscurity doesn't work for Nukes either

In the computer world, many companies used to rely on their closed code and poorly-documented functionality to keep pirates and hackers from gaining unauthorized access to their systems. This was termed "security thru obcurity" and it worked pretty well until the Internet Era. Then the sharing of information allowed hackers to pool their knowledge and skills to defeat even the most obscure code. Nowadays, vendors have to resort to encrypted code or "signed apps" in order to secure their systems (one of the reasons for the Apple App Store).

But nuclear policymakers are still relying on "security thru obscurity" as a way to stop proliferation of nuclear weapons. They figure if they carefully control the spread of nuclear knowledge, and track materials, then no one can secretly develop their own nukes. Unfortunately, recent news that the tiny nation of Myanmar (formerly Burma) is developing nukes with North Korean help puts the lie to this theory. So long as nations can benefit from nuclear weapons - and can afford the raw materials - they will try to build them as protection against other nuclear powers.

One policymaker was rumored to say during the Manhattan Project, "Why did we build these devices if not to use them?" We then nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki. How long until a North Korean or Myranmar politician decides the same thing? Welcome to Cold War II.

Nuclear Tantrums are a Bad Thing

Reality Check (political cartoon)

From here.

North Korea tests "Hiroshima bomb"

In what is clearly intended to be an insult to America on a day we remember our dead, North Korea tested a nuclear bomb on par with the one that hit Hiroshima at the end of World War II. It is being claimed that Kim Jon Il gave the USA less than hour's notice of the test.

Russian defence experts estimated the explosion's yield at between 10 and 20 kilotons, many times more than the 1 kiloton measured in its first nuclear test in 2006 and about as powerful as the bombs the US used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of the second world war. One kiloton is equal to the force produced by 1,000 tons of TNT.

The force of the blast made the ground tremble in the Chinese border city of Yanji, 130 miles away...Today's test will add to fears that the North is moving closer to possessing the ability to mount a nuclear warhead on long-range missiles that are capable, in theory, of reaching Hawaii and Alaska.

"This test, if confirmed, could indicate North Korea's decision to work at securing actual nuclear capabilities," Koh Yu-hwan, a professor at Dongkuk University in Seoul, told Reuters.

Two questions hang in the air at this point. (1) What can we do to limit North Korea and thus protect the region - Japan is clearly convinced they could be a target of a NK nuke? (2) What are North Korea's actual intentions for these weapons - defense or conquest? Either way, Kim Jong Il seems to be set on convincing the world that he is a clear and present danger to international peace.

Will Pakistani uprising give Al Qaeda a nuke?

Amidst the Swine Flu - I mean H1N1 flu - panic, we have somewhat lost sight of a sobering reality in the country of Pakistan. An uprising lead by Taliban and Al Qaeda sympathizers has been winning battles in Pakistan, and has begun to capture towns and cities near the capital. Why do we care, you ask? Because there is a very real possibility of the insurgents capturing a nuke from the Pakistani security system.

Several current officials said that they were worried that insurgents could try to provoke an incident that would prompt Pakistan to move the weapons, and perhaps use an insider with knowledge of the transportation schedule for weapons or materials to tip them off. That concern appeared to be what Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton was hinting at in testimony 10 days ago before the House Appropriations Committee. Pakistan’s weapons, she noted, “are widely dispersed in the country.”

“There’s not a central location, as you know,” she added. “They’ve adopted a policy of dispersing their nuclear weapons and facilities.” She went on to describe a potential situation in which a confrontation with India could prompt a Pakistani response, though she did not go as far as saying that such a response could include moving weapons toward India — which American officials believed happened in 2002. Other experts note that even as Pakistan faces instability, it is producing more plutonium for new weapons, and building more production reactors.

Allowing a nuclear weapon - any nuclear weapon - to fall into the hands of terrorists is clearly a worst-case scenario. Hopefully, Pakistan will be wise in their use of these weapons, and America will aggressive in its intelligence-gathering and oversight of the arsenal. But here's hoping President Obama shows the toughness he has always claimed to have in addressing this threat with Islamabad.

Another view of the Energy Crisis

Greenpeace Co-Founder Advocates Nuclear Power

Although Patrick Moore left Greenpeace in the 80's, he was one of the co-founders of the organization. Now, he is working on the Clean and Safe Energy Coalition and is advocating switching the nation to as much as 50% nuclear power by the end of the century. Instead of banking on high cost alternatives, he feels that we should work on better disposal of the nuclear waste.