Home-grown terror may be on the rise

One of the great accomplishments of the final years of the Bush administration was to prevent any further terrorist attacks in the United States. Between the diligent work of our intelligence and law enforcement agencies and the War in Iraq to distract and divert our enemies, the homefront has remained relatively unscathed.

Terrorism experts are warning that may be about to end. And no, it is not any particular Obama administration policy that is putting us at risk. It is an increasing willingness of Al-Qaeda and its allies to recruit Americans and settle for smaller attacks which are harder to predict and prevent.

"The impact of the attempted attacks during the past year suggests al-Qaeda, and its affiliates and allies, will attempt to conduct smaller-scale attacks targeting the homeland but with greater frequency," said Michael Leiter, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, pointing to plots against the subway system in New York, the attempt to down a commercial airliner approaching Detroit and the failed car bombing in Times Square.

Leiter said in his testimony that "al-Qaeda in Pakistan is at one of its weakest points organizationally," but he noted that "regional affiliates and allies can compensate for the potentially decreased willingness of al-Qaeda in Pakistan - the deadliest supplier of such training and guidance - to accept and train new recruits."

"The spike in homegrown violent extremist activity during the past year is indicative of a common cause that rallies independent extremists to want to attack the homeland," said Leiter.

You Mean They're Dangerous Terrorist?

But...I thought all the Gitmo prisoners were just innocent victims of America's imperialistic agenda!

Al-Qaeda on the verge of collapse?

I imagine after the political fiasco of the "Mission Accomplished" banner, the Bush Administration is loathe to call any conflict "near victory". But the CIA has now released a report indicating that Al-Qaeda may be on its last legs.

"On balance, we are doing pretty well," he said, ticking down a list of accomplishments: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam," he said.

The sense of shifting tides in the terrorism fight is shared by a number of terrorism experts, though some caution that it is too early to tell whether the gains are permanent. Some credit Hayden and other U.S. intelligence leaders for going on the offensive against al-Qaeda in the area along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, where the tempo of Predator strikes has dramatically increased from previous years. But analysts say the United States has caught some breaks in the past year, benefiting from improved conditions in Iraq, as well as strategic blunders by al-Qaeda that have cut into its support base.

"One of the lessons we can draw from the past two years is that al-Qaeda is its own worst enemy," said Robert Grenier, a former top CIA counterterrorism official who is now managing director of Kroll, a risk consulting firm. "Where they have succeeded initially, they very quickly discredit themselves."

This may also explain the rumored Bin Laden tape which calls for the use of WMDs on Western Civilians - a sign of desperation and a complete abandonment of any moral high ground by even the most ardent Militant Islamic observer.

Ward and I were discussing just yesterday the administrations unwillingness to toot its own horn right now in the Iraq War and the battle against Al-Gaeda. Do you think this is a reversal of that policy, or is the CIA trying to make their own news outside of the White House news cycle?

Viewing Changes to a Digital Image

At DefCon, a conference for computer hackers that takes place in Las Vegas, Neal Krawetz presented a tool that allows the user to see what parts of an image have been edited in later. With this tool, he was able to show that some of the Al-Qaeda videos have been doctored. Not surprising, but interesting.

Please note that despite what the media and pop-culture says, the word "hacker" is not a negative word. A hacker is merely one who tinkers with things. As with similar skills, they can be used for good or bad. A good example would be lock-picking. A locksmith can help you get into your car when you've locked yourself out the same way a thief can break into your car.