The Impact of War on Politics and Presidential Elections

I just finished listening to the Audio Book version of TEAM OF RIVALS by Doris Kearns Goodwin, which is a retelling of the history of the election of Abraham Lincoln and the waging of the Civil War from the vantage point of Lincoln's cabinet members. There is a lot of profundity in the book, showing how important relationships and rivalries are to the efficient running of government. It even shows why self-absorbed, self-promoting, self-obsessed men can be the most effective tools of government, even when they are not the kind of people you'd want in the same room with you. It is highly recommended.

But one of the things that struck me most from the book is the political similarities to our own time, and our own war. Now, I am not comparing GWB to Lincoln. We are too close to his times to accurately brand the current administration as either saints or a demons. But the political realities here are so very similar. Like the Iraq War, the Civil War began as a popular war with great support among the people. The first battle was actually a social event for residents of D.C., as they brought out picnic gear to watch the battle from a "safe" distance. Like the Iraq War, bitter realities quickly became apparent, as the enemy was found to have been underestimated and far more devious and dedicated than the government had expected. And like the Iraq War, an anti-war movement quickly formed and coalesced as the "loyal opposition". Like the upcoming election, the election for Lincoln's mid-term (he was not alive for the one after his second term) was all about the War. Going into Fall, the lack of a major victory made it seem like victory was impossible. The Republicans even scheduled a second convention to pick a new candidate. But then several victories in a row elevated Lincoln and the party, and he was elected in a landslide.

I think the lesson here is that what we are seeing today is not an "unprecedented Constitutional crisis", as the extremists of both sides would have us think. We are seeing a very familiar American dynamic. The battle right now is not so much Right vs Left, or Republican vs Democrat. Rather, it is Energy vs Fatigue. And the final decision can not be predicted in 2007, because events on the ground in Iraq will govern 2008 far more than anything said or done today. If there is victory in 2008, the GOP is virtually guaranteed a win. If there is more grinding persistence or defeat, the Democrats are virtually guaranteed a win. All of the debates, posturing, politicking doesn't mean much of anything.

The key is to do what we can to ensure that both candidates chosen for the major parties are people we can live with. Because chances are neither will be elected on their own merits, but on those of the War.